The Most Likely Playoff Scenarios; LCS Summer Split 2022

LCS

With only one week left in the 2022 regular season, three games make the difference between playoffs and the end of the year for the five remaining unqualified LCS teams. For some teams, only a single victory is necessary to make an appearance; however, for most, every win matters.

As it stands right now, five teams have already qualified for the playoffs, with four of those qualifying to compete in the upper bracket. With eight total playoff seeds available, the remaining five teams are competing for the final three—likely lower bracket—spots. Before diving into the most likely seedings, take a brief look at the current standings.

LCS Summer 2022 Standings

1. 100 Thieves (12-3)
– Evil Geniuses (12-3)
3. Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) (10-5)
– Team Liquid (10-5)
5. Cloud9 (8-7)
6. FlyQuest (7-8)
7. TSM (5-10)
8. Golden Guardians (4-11)
– Immortals (4-11)
10. Dignitas (3-12)

The Top Dogs; First and Second Seeds

Although these are by no means guaranteed, the rough playoff seedings of each team can be estimated given each team’s upcoming matches, first round robin standings, and recent performances.

Looking at the top of the table first, the first and second seed will almost undoubtedly go to 100 Thieves and Evil Geniuses. The order of those two seeds, however, is a bit more tricky to determine. With both teams having taken a win against one another this split, their current tie for first will most likely extend past the regular season.

Although 100 Thieves have the much more dangerous matchups (Team Liquid, FlyQuest, and CLG), they are also on the current longest winning streak and have been known to ramp up tremendously going into playoffs.

Evil Geniuses, on the other hand, have a much more manageable schedule (Golden Guardians, Dignitas, and Cloud9), but have faltered recently. Although EG held sole first place for the majority of the split, they were badly defeated last week by Team Liquid. Even so, the most likely scenario, outside of a tiebreaker matchup, would be EG taking the first seed and 100 Thieves taking the second simply because of their schedules.

The Middle of the Pack; Third Through Fifth Seeds

While the top of the table was very straightforward, the middle seeds are the most unpredictable. With each of the current third to fifth place teams having ranked higher than the other two at some point in the split, determining the final seeding could not be more difficult.

As it stands currently, Cloud9 lingers just one win below both CLG and Team Liquid, and will most likely finish below both. Although all three of these teams will have to face either 100 Thieves or Evil Geniuses in the upcoming superweek, Cloud9’s current placement below both teams would require either two losses on the half of CLG and TL, or three wins (including one against EG) on their half. Although their other two matches are, comparatively, easy, Cloud9 needs to beat both TSM and IMT for the chance to place above CLG or TL.

CLG and TL have very similar schedules ahead of them. Both face off against 100T and an eighth place team. TL, however, plays Dignitas, whereas CLG will have to play TSM. Although both teams should win those matchups, TSM previously played spoiler against TL in week two. Regardless, if either team is able to beat 100T, they will take over the other. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that 100T will lose both, but if it does come to that a tiebreaker will ensue for the third and fourth seed.

The Bottom of the Barrel; Sixth Through Eight Seeds

The final seeds are quite a tossup. Realistically, any of the remaining teams—aside from Dignitas—can make the playoffs, but only FlyQuest really has a chance to make an impact in the playoffs. Almost assuredly FlyQuest will make sixth. The rest of the teams have an equal chance to make any of the remaining spots.

The most likely scenario is that TSM and IMT lose all of their games, GG wins against Dignitas and IMT is eliminated from the playoffs; however, GG has been looking shaky lately despite their roster upgrade with River. If this were to happen, TSM and GG would have to play a tiebreaker match.

Using these predictions, the playoff seedings are as follows:

1. Evil Geniuses (via tiebreaker or 100T upset loss)
2. 100 Thieves
3. Team Liquid (via tiebreaker with CLG)
4. CLG
5. Cloud9
6. FlyQuest
7. TSM (via tiebreaker with GG)
8. GG

 


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